We’re just one day away from finding out the winners of the 2024 ARIA Awards.
The full list of nominations was revealed in late September, with indie pop duo Royel Otis leading the pack with an impressive eight nods.
Following closely behind him is Dom Dolla with six nominations, Angie McMahon and Kylie Minogue with five apiece, while 3%, Amy Shark, RÜFÜS DU SOL, The Kid LAROI, Tones and I, and Troye Sivan each have four chances of winning.
Others aiming for glory include Confidence Man, FISHER, Mildlife, Miss Kaninna, SPEED, and Troy Cassar-Daley, who are each nominated for three awards.
Ahead of this year’s awards, which take place on Wednesday, November 20th at Sydney’s Hordern Pavilion, our editorial team has considered the runners and riders and predicted the winners in 15 of the major categories (excluding public voted awards).
More information about the 2024 ARIA Awards can be found here.
Album of the Year
The Nominees
Amy Shark – Sunday Sadness
Angie McMahon – Light, Dark, Light Again
Kylie Minogue – Tension
Royel Otis – PRATTS & PAIN
Troye Sivan – Something to Give Each Other
Who Should Win
Angie McMahon, Light, Dark, Light Again
There are bigger names than Angie McMahon in this category, but it would be wonderful to see the indie singer-songwriter win for her truly transformative second album. Light, Dark, Light Again, which placed No. 3 in our Best Australian Albums of 2023 list, received unanimous acclaim upon its release.
“It takes a special artist to make you feel less alone in the vastness of the world. Angie McMahon, seeking solace from her anxiety, found transformation in nature and being alone with herself, and she freely instilled her renewed spirituality into her art. McMahon’s second album is the result, a sometimes unsparing listen that doesn’t offer easy answers but instead provides comfort through shared experience,” we wrote.
Who Will Win
Troye Sivan, Something to Give Each Other
The album that propelled Troye Sivan to superstardom. No Australian album has disrupted the zeitgeist in quite the same way as Something to Give Each Other in recent times. Both a commercial success and critical darling, Sivan’s third album scored well on many year-end lists last year, earning praise from Pitchfork, NME, The Hollywood Reporter, and more.
Best Solo Artist
The Nominees
Amy Shark – Sunday Sadness
Angie McMahon – Light, Dark, Light Again
Dom Dolla – “Saving Up”
Emma Donovan – “Til My Song Is Done”
Kylie Minogue – Tension
The Kid LAROI – THE FIRST TIME [DELUXE VERSION]
Tkay Maidza – Sweet Justice
Tones and I – Beautifully Ordinary
Troy Cassar-Daley – Between the Fires
Troye Sivan – Something to Give Each Other
Who Should Win
Troye Sivan, Something to Give Each Other
There could be any number of winners in this tough category, from the stylish and self-confident Tkay Maidza to the always-consistent Amy Shark, but no artist has stood out on an individual basis quite like Troye Sivan recently. He’s toured with artist-of-the-moment Charli XCX across North America; he’s been parodied on SNL not once but twice; he’s dropped music videos that are both exhilarating and controversial. The past 12 months is when Sivan truly seized his moment in the spotlight.
Who Will Win
Kylie Minogue, Tension
Can you believe that Kylie has never been named Best Solo Artist at the ARIAs? Yes, Hall of Fame inductee Kylie. It feels like Kylie will battle it out with Troye Sivan in the biggest categories, so if Sivan gets Album of the Year, expect her to win Best Solo Artist. It would be a nice way to honour Kylie for Tension, which was a tremendous late-period album from the pop icon.
Best Group
The Nominees
3% – KILL THE DEAD
Hiatus Kaiyote – Love Heart Cheat Code
Royel Otis – PRATTS & PAIN
RÜFÜS DU SOL – “Music Is Better”
SPEED – Only One Mode
Who Should Win
SPEED, Only One Mode
Hardcore is unlikely to ever become properly mainstream, but SPEED have gotten it closer than most. The Sydney hardcore crew are a special group, one fiercely committed to their independence and identity. In an era where artists regularly sell themselves out for success, SPEED remaining SPEED, even when they’ve exploded outside their local scene, deserves recognition.
Who Will Win
Royel Otis, PRATTS & PAIN
As the most-nominated artist, the question is not if Royel Otis will win any award, but how many the rising stars will win. If Kylie and Troye Sivan lock them out of the big two categories, Best Group seems certain to be theirs. RÜFÜS DU SOL are ARIAs favourites, but their new music came out late in the day. And Royel Otis are superstars-in-the-making: they’ve notched more than nine million followers on Spotify, and featured in our Future of Music series earlier this year.
Michael Gudinski Breakthrough Artist
The Nominees
3% – KILL THE DEAD
Becca Hatch – MAYDAY
Kita Alexander – Young in Love
Sycco – Zorb
Teen Jesus and the Jean Teasers – I Love You
Who Should Win
Teen Jesus and the Jean Teasers, I Love You
Unlike the Grammys, which always has very established artists in its Best New Artist category (Sabrina Carpenter is on her sixth album!), the ARIAs’ Breakthrough Artist category has five artists nominated off the back of excellent debut records. Teen Jesus and the Jean Teasers, however, should have the edge. I Love You was a major debut album that confirmed the arrival of an assured new rock band, and it even made it deep into the Top 10 on the ARIA Australian Albums Chart.
Who Will Win
Kita Alexander, Young in Love
Kita Alexander is a born pop star, and her wider social profile – almost five million monthly Spotify listeners and over 70K Instagram followers – than her competitors could see her triumph in this category. Young in Love was a strong debut, too, featuring memorable collaborations with LAUREL and Morgan Evans.
Best Pop Release
The Nominees
Amy Shark – Sunday Sadness
Jessica Mauboy – Yours Forever
Kylie Minogue – Tension
The Kid LAROI – “Girls”
Troye Sivan – Something to Give Each Other
Who Should Win
The Kid LAROI, “Girls”
Long ago crossing the threshold from hip-hop into pop, The Kid LAROI’s “Girls” was a serious ‘Song of the Summer’ contender this year. LAROI was chillness personified on the single, recalling the R&B-meets-pop style of Justin Timberlake and Pharrell in the early 2000s.
Who Will Win
The Kid LAROI, “Girls”
Kylie won in this category last year for the resounding “Padam Padam”, seeing off stern competition from Troye Sivan’s equally compelling “Rush”, so both artists are unlikely to compete again. That paves the way for LAROI to concretise his pop credentials with a victory for “Girls”.
Best Dance/Electronic Release
The Nominees
Confidence Man – “I CAN’T LOSE YOU”
CYRIL – “Stumblin’ In”
Dom Dolla – “Saving Up”
FISHER Feat. Kita Alexander – “Atmosphere”
RÜFÜS DU SOL – “Music Is Better”
Who Should Win
Dom Dolla, “Saving Up”
Yes, Dom Dolla won this very category in 2023 for his MK collaboration “Rhyme Dust”, but “Saving Up” is very much its equal. The popular producer’s track attempted to make a feel-good record, and he effortlessly succeeded in creating this with the house-meets-disco euphoria of “Saving Up”.
Who Will Win
RÜFÜS DU SOL, “Music Is Better”
Perennial ARIAs nominees RÜFÜS DU SOL are due a win. They haven’t won since they earned the Best Group and Best Dance Release awards in 2021 (“Alive”), with their mega-hit album Surrender even missing out in 2022. So, if Dom Dolla’s 2023 triumph in this category does count against him, expect RÜFÜS DU SOL to break their recent duck.
Best Hip Hop/Rap Release
The Nominees
3% – KILL THE DEAD
Kobie Dee – Chapter 26
Lithe – “Fall Back”
ONEFOUR – “NATURAL HABITAT”
The Kid LAROI – THE FIRST TIME [DELUXE VERSION]
Who Should Win
Kobie Dee, Chapter 26
There weren’t many more powerfully self-reflective EPs released this year than Kobie Dee’s Chapter 26. The EP journeyed through its creator’s life, “from being a young Blak man in Australia, to becoming a father and navigating fatherhood from a place of having an absent father myself.” Similar to Angie McMahon in the Album of the Year category, it would be pleasing to see an artist like Dee beat out bigger names like LAROI and earn some well-deserved acclaim.
3%, KILL THE DEAD
If Kobie Dee doesn’t win, then 3% would also be the worthiest of winners. The First Nations collective of Nooky, Dallas Woods, and Angus Field, came flying out the traps on their debut album this year, mixing defiance and swagger with humour and introspection. Like Dee’s EP, 3%’s album vulnerably explored tough subjects like mental health, family, and country, placing Blak storytelling at the forefront.
Best Independent Release
The Nominees
Angie McMahon – Light, Dark, Light Again
Emily Wurramara – NARA
Kylie Minogue – Tension
Miss Kaninna – Blak Britney
Royel Otis – PRATTS & PAIN
Who Should Win
Miss Kaninna, “Blak Britney”
Rarely has an artist had an early run of singles quite like Miss Kaninna, and it all started with “Blak Britney”. Miss Kaninna’s thrilling debut release was so good we swiftly declared her “one of the hottest rising stars in Australian music right now.” Listening to “Black Britney” was to hear a self-confident star being born.
Who Will Win
Kylie Minogue, Tension
Kylie just winning one award this year? Don’t bet against it. Best Independent Release might be a good opportunity for her to win in a less competitive category.
Best Rock Album
The Nominees
Angie McMahon – Light, Dark, Light Again
Grinspoon – whatever, whatever
King Gizzard & The Lizard Wizard – Flight b741
Middle Kids – Faith Crisis Pt 1
Royel Otis – PRATTS & PAIN
Who Should Win
Middle Kids, Faith Crisis Pt 1
This is when genres become a tricky thing to navigate. On the surface, there are only two true rock artists, Grinspoon and Middle Kids, nominated in this category. Angie McMahon is more widely considered indie, although Light, Dark, Light Again superbly expands into rockier territory; King Gizzard are the psychedelic kings; Royel Otis’ earworm anthems would be better classed as indie pop. But Middle Kids? They know how to play the hell out of alternative rock. The trio won Best Rock Album three years ago for Today We’re the Greatest, and a second consecutive win is very achievable.
Who Will Win
Royel Otis, PRATTS & PAIN
So far we’ve only predicted Royel Otis to win in one category, and that’s just not enough for the exciting duo. ARIAs voters won’t be as (needlessly) discerning as we are when it comes to genres, so Royel Otis are likely to earn a second award in this category.
Best Hard Rock/Heavy Metal Album
The Nominees
C.O.F.F.I.N – Australia Stops
Dune Rats – If It Sucks, Turn It Up
Polaris – Fatalism
SPEED – Only One Mode
Teenage Joans – The Rot That Grows Inside My Chest
Who Should Win
Polaris, Fatalism
Emotion shouldn’t necessarily play into awards decisions, but Polaris winning an ARIA for their final album with late, great lead guitarist Ryan Siew would be a fitting end to their album cycle. It helps that Fatalism is a powerful record in its own right, with fans connecting wide and far with its cathartic anthems on Polaris’ tour.
Who Will Win
Polaris, Fatalism
See above. Metalcore for the win.
Best Country Album
The Nominees
Casey Barnes – Mayday
Henry Wagons – The Four Seasons
James Johnston – Raised Like That
Tori Forsyth – All We Have Is Who We Are
Troy Cassar-Daley – Between the Fires
Who Should Win
Tori Forsyth, All We Have Is Who We Are
Troy Cassar-Daley is a strong contender (see below), but it would be nice to see some newer talent recognised in this category. Queensland Music Award winner Tori Forsyth almost quit music in 2022, left disoriented like so many of us by the pandemic, but it’s lucky that she persevered. Her reward – and the reward for fans – was All We Have Is Who We Are, Forsyth’s touching and authentic third album.
Who Will Win
Troy Cassar-Daley, Between the Fires
When it comes to this ARIAs category, Troy Cassar-Daley is the guy. The five-time winner could make it six for Between the Fires, a beautiful album that was recorded at Halfway Creek, his late mum’s old place where the singer-songwriter lived for many years.
Best Adult Contemporary Album
The Nominees
Angus & Julia Stone – Cape Forestier
Crowded House – Gravity Stairs
Emily Wurramara – NARA
Emma Donovan – Til My Song Is Done
Fanning Dempsey National Park – The Deluge
Who Should Win
Crowded House, Gravity Stairs
It takes a special band to remain at the top of their game five decades into their career, and Crowded House are that special band. The pop-rock veterans sounded as sublime as ever on their latest album Gravity Stairs, which soared to No. 3 on the ARIA Albums Chart.
Who Will Win
Angus & Julia Stone, Cape Forestier
Emily Wurramara and Emma Donovan would both be worthy winners, while it’s probably too soon for the newly founded super-duo Fanning Dempsey National Park, but Angus & Julia Stone remain hugely popular across Australia for their seasoned songwriting.
Best Soul/R&B Release
The Nominees
Forest Claudette – Jupiter
Milan Ring – “Mangos”
Miss Kaninna – “Blak Britney”
PANIA – WE STILL YOUNG
Tkay Maidza – Sweet Justice
Who Should Win
Miss Kaninna, “Blak Britney”
Perhaps the toughest category to call. Wherever you look is a stunning soul/R&B artist, but, as we’ve explained above, Miss Kaninna deserves love, at least in one category, for “Blak Britney”.
Who Will Win
Tkay Maidza, Sweet Justice
Tkay Maidza is one of the best artists to emerge from Australia in recent years, and her wider profile compared to her competitors could see her triumph in this category. Pitchfork, The Guardian, and more gave Sweet Justice a positive review, with the latter noting Maidza’s chameleonic ability to work in “many genres” and reveal “something different with every listen.”
The Nominees
Checkerboard Lounge – Sun Sessions
Dope Lemon – Kimosabè
Georgia Mooney – Full of Moon
Mia Dyson – Tender Heart
The Paper Kites – At the Roundhouse
Who Should Win
Mia Dyson, Tender Heart
Talk about triumphant. Mia Dyson returned from a harrowing near-death experience with Tender Heart, an album pulsating with renewed appreciation for life. Again, like the case with Polaris, emotion shouldn’t necessarily matter here, but it’s difficult not to be overcome by the artistic bravery of Dyson on her latest record.
Who Will Win
Dope Lemon, Kimosabè
Angus Stone’s alter ego is, like his main project, hugely popular in Australia. His sixth album as Dope Lemon, Kimosabè, found him having more fun than ever before with his side project, sampling Step Brothers and unveiling hip music videos. Reaching No. 9 on the ARIA Australian Albums Chart is a good indicator of Dope Lemon’s chances of success in this category.
Best Children’s Album
The Nominees
Bluey – Dance Mode!
Emma Memma – Twirly Tunes
Josh Pyke – It’s Gonna Be a Great, Great Day!
The Wiggles – Wiggle and Learn: 100 Educational Songs for Children
Zinzi & The Zillionaires – Zinzi & the Zillionaires
Who Should Win
Bluey, Dance Mode!
Bluey has to win. It’s Bluey. It’s the biggest show in the world. Even adults love it.
Who Will Win
Bluey, Dance Mode!
It’s Bluey.
