2026 Aotearoa Music Awards: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

Geneva AM – Pikipiki
Ladi6 – Le Vā
Lorde – Virgin
Marlon Williams – Te Whare Tīwekaweka
Tami Neilson – Neon Cowgirl
Tom Scott – ANITYA

Who Will Win
Lorde – Virgin

Lorde trails only Marlon Williams in nominations, and there’s no chance in hell that Aotearoa’s biggest music star walks away empty handed on the night (even if she doesn’t attend the ceremony). If Williams, as we expect, locks her out of the main prize with his superior album, then some of the smaller categories will offer Lorde a better chance.

Lorde is a proper pop solo artist, constantly pushing herself and her sound to new extremes. No one would begrudge her this win.

Who Should Win
Marlon Williams – Te Whare Tīwekaweka

Yes, the excellent Kommi helped guide Williams during his album’s creative process. Yes, the reliable Yarra Benders band were there by his side for much of it too. But Williams still deserves to be recognised as a ‘solo’ artist for myriad reasons.

Firstly, how deeply personal the journey to his first te reo album was. “Through the process of constructing these songs, I’ve found a means of expressing my joys, sorrows and humour in a way that feels both distinctly new, yet also connects me to my tīpuna and my whenua,” Williams said when his album was first announced.

Secondly, as our recent review of his Tāmaki Makaurau tour show highlighted, there are few more charismatic and accomplished live performers than Williams in Australasia. In an era of music where male solo artists have been decidedly lacking, Williams has excelled.

Hamo Dell – “Tā Roha”
Marlon Williams – Te Whare Tīwekaweka
MOHI – “Ka Rea’”(feat. Pare)
Nikau Grace – “He Aha Te Aha” (feat. Te Kapa Haka o Ngāti Whakaue)
Rob Ruha, Troy Kingi & Kaylee Bell – “Matariki Hunga Nui”
Stan Walker – “Mō Āke Tonu” (feat. Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke)

Who Will Win
Marlon Williams – Te Whare Tīwekaweka

Is this the strongest year for this category yet? As AMA noted when the finalists were announced, 2025 was a landmark year for waiata reo Māori: Kiwis streamed music with te reo Māori lyrics more than 69 million times, an increase from 64 million the previous year. Sales of te reo Māori albums also tripled on the previous year.

Any of the other names in this category, which recognises recordings with at least 50% te reo Māori content, would have stood a great chance of winning in any other year, but the biggest te reo Māori album of 2025 will win. There’s no way voters don’t overwhelmingly go for Williams (Kāi Tahu, Ngāi Tai) here.

Who Should Win
Marlon Williams – Te Whare Tīwekaweka

Hori Shaw – “I Know a Place”, “Ready to Ride” (w. Te Wehi), “Catch a Wave”
MĀ – Blame It on the Weather
Marlon Williams – Te Whare Tīwekaweka
Stan Walker – “Bulletproof”, “Soul Deep”, “Could You Be Loved” – from Live From Parachute Studios, 2025
TAWAZ – “Tuituia Rā” (w. Chris Tamwoy & Marei), “E Ipo” (w. Mereana & HERA), “Te Wahine” (w. Emily Wurramara)
Te Wehi – “Ready to Ride” (w. Hori Shaw), “Unfortunately”, “Raining”, “Didn’t Change a Thing”, “OH AH”, “Far Far Away”, “Light Up”, “Masterly Man”

Who Will Win
Marlon Williams – Te Whare Tīwekaweka

Could we see a surprise in this category, perhaps if voters are fed up of rooting for Williams elsewhere? Probably not. It feels like he’s approaching clean sweep territory this year.

Who Should Win
MĀ – Blame it on the Weather

Could we see a surprise in this category, perhaps if voters are fed up of rooting for Williams elsewhere? Maybe! Certainly if enough of them have listened to MĀ’s Blame it on the Weather, an incredible album which journeys through neo-soul, jazz, hip-hop, and plenty more with the Te Whanganui-a-Tara artist’s typical style. It’s also a record that’s deeply in touch with the natural world, Te Taiao, as MĀ ponders her job as a kaitiaki as well as climate emergency awareness.

Grecco Romank – Arts Colony
MĀ – Blame It on the Weather
Phoebe Rings – Aseurai

Who Will Win
MĀ – Blame it on the Weather

As we wrote above, 2025 was a blockbuster year for Māori artists, and MĀ’s contribution had a lot to do with that success. If Williams sweeps the te reo categories, as he very well might, then Best Alternative Artist could offer MĀ her best chance of a win on the night. And as we also wrote above, Blame It on the Weather is a stunning album. It deserves its flowers in some capacity.

Who Should Win
Grecco Romank – Arts Colony

MĀ is fantastic, as are dream-pop purveyors Phoebe Rings, but if we treat this category in a most literal sense — “alternative” — Grecco Romank are as purely “alternative” as it comes.

The Tāmaki Makaurau trio’s sound is near-indescribable, a boundary-pushing, dazzling mix of futuristic electronic beats, dangerous techno, riotous rave, and almost every other underground sound you can think of.

Being the most “alternative” band isn’t enough of a reason to give a band an award, though, which is why it’s lucky that Arts Colony, Grecco Romank’s latest album, is their career-best work, featuring barmy collaborations with Princess Chelsea (“Don’t Get Caught”) and alluring-cum-lurid anthems like “2 Hot 2 Hunt”.

Aotearoa is a country with a proud history of weird (complimentary) music, and Grecco Romank are more unafraid than most to delve where other musicians won’t.

Jenny Mitchell – Forest House
Kaylee Bell – Cowboy Up
Tami Neilson – Neon Cowgirl

Who Will Win
Jenny Mitchell – Forest House

It feels like Bell and Neilson have a new album cycle every six months, and while this is far from a bad thing for artists of their calibre, it does mean that they’ve been in this position before: the pair have shared the Best Country Music Artist award between them for the last four years. It’s a quite remarkable run that speaks to their respective consistency.

So if voters have done their due diligence, this fact could influence the voting in this category. It’s lucky, then, that the third member of this category, Jenny Mitchell, released the stunning Forest House last year.

The singer-songwriter’s fourth album blends personal and universal storytelling to create a collection that’s both heartbreaking and uplifting.

Who Should Win
Jenny Mitchell – Forest House

See above.

Caru & Brandn Shiraz – Back 2 Back
Geneva AM – Pikipiki
Sanoi – Augenblick: Side A

Who Will Win
Geneva AM – Pikipiki

We’ve praised Caru & Brandn Shiraz a lot for their brilliant homage to UK garage, and Sanoi regularly features in our Best New Zealand Music of the Week roundups, but there’s just no way voters look past Geneva AM here. If, as we predict, Williams wins the main prize, this category could be the producer’s best chance of an AMA win.

Who Should Win
Geneva AM – Pikipiki

See above. She’s the outstanding candidate in a strong category.

Diggy Dupé & choicevaughan – Brown Velvet
MOKOMOKAI – PONO!
Troy Kingi – Troy Kingi Presents: Night Lords

Who Will Win
Troy Kingi – Troy Kingi Presents: Night Lords

Aotearoa loves Troy Kingi, and AMA voters also clearly love Troy Kingi. The chameleonic musician has won several AMA awards over the years, and even more impressively his wins have come in different genre categories. Now competing for Best Hip Hop Artist, his higher profile could seal him a win for yet another genre.

Who Should Win
MOKOMOKAI – PONO!

As we wrote about last week, hip-hop is in such a strong place in Aotearoa, and MOKOMOKAI are right at the forefront of this current exciting generation. The trio are coming off the high of a successful Australian tour, and an AMA win in this category would be the perfect cap on a major 12 months.

BENEE – Ur an Angel I’m Just Particles
Borderline – Chrysalis
Lorde – Virgin

Who Will Win
Lorde – Virgin

BENEE can count herself unlucky to only be nominated in one category this year, and she’s doubly unlucky that Lorde is also present in this one category. Borderline, quickly rising to wider prominence, will be back at these awards in years to come. This category belongs to Lorde.

Who Should Win
Lorde – Virgin

See above.

Alien Weaponry – Te Rā
Beastwars – The Ship // The Sea
Dick Move – Dream, Believe, Achieve

Who Will Win
Dick Move – Dream, Believe, Achieve

Are AMA voters more rock or metal? If there are metal fans amongst their number, then it’s a straight shootout between Beastwars and Alien Weaponry — both are extremely consistent, and both of their albums would be worthy winners.

If voters decide to ignore the genre split, however, and go for what’s the best album of the three, then it will be Dick Move’s name on the gong. Dream, Believe, Achieve is the masterful political-punk album that Dick Move have been building towards for several years.

Who Should Win
Dick Move – Dream, Believe, Achieve

See above.