The Trump administration has advanced a 28-point plan aimed at securing peace between Russia and Ukraine, which critics say would force Kyiv’s surrender to Moscow.
The plan, first leaked to the news site Axios on Wednesday, appears to have been developed in negotiations between U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff — a billionaire New York real-estate lawyer President Donald Trump has known since the 1980s — and Kirill Dmitriev, the chief executive of a $10 billion Russian sovereign wealth fund with close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Neither Ukraine nor America’s European allies were consulted in developing the proposal.
Among the plan’s major points are territorial concessions to Russia; a reduction of the Ukrainian military by half; a promise not to join NATO; amnesty for all crimes committed during the conflict; a prohibition against European troops being stationed in Ukraine; forced elections in Kyiv 100 days after signing the deal; a prohibition against long-range strikes into Russia; and the establishment of a $100 billion reconstruction fund using seized Russian assets — of which the U.S. would get 50 percent of the profits.
Washington is ready to cut off intelligence and weapons to Ukraine in order to force it to sign the deal ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., according to a report from Reuters, citing multiple insiders.
“Right now is one of the hardest moments in our history. Right now, Ukraine is under some of the heaviest pressure yet,” Zelensky said in a video address to the nation Friday in Kyiv. “Right now, Ukraine may find itself facing a very tough choice. Either the loss of our dignity or the risk of losing a key partner.”
The U.S. previously cut off intelligence and weapons to Ukraine in March, after a disastrous meeting in the White House, in which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was publicly berated by Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance.
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Months of efforts by Zelensky to repair relations between Kyiv and Washington — including a carefully choreographed “impromptu” meeting with Trump organized by the Vatican at the funeral for Pope Francis in April, the signing of an agreement to give the U.S. access to rare-earths minerals in Ukraine, and even Zelensky forsaking a vow not to wear a suit until the war was over (seemingly to please the U.S. president) — have now fallen to pieces.
Zelensky is under tremendous pressure not just from Washington and Moscow, but also at home, where a major corruption scandal involving key advisers has engulfed his administration and sapped domestic support just as the war is entering one of its grimmest phases.
Sustained Russian airstrikes using massive waves of drones and cruise and ballistic missiles have caused major damage to critical infrastructure, especially its electrical system. Rolling blackouts are common, and even with Ukrainians long accustomed to relying on generators and backup systems, the disruptions affect virtually every aspect of daily life in most major cities.
Direct attacks on civilians are also common. A Russian cruise missile plowed into an apartment building in the Western city of Ternopil on Tuesday. The death toll from that single strike now stands at 31, and Ukrainian social media is awash with the tragic details of the victims, including at least six children — and a mother and daughter whose bodies were found in the rubble, clinging together.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military situation is deteriorating. In a recent trip to a frontline area in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, Rolling Stone witnessed exhausted soldiers stretched thin, with evidence of Russian incursions penetrating loosely held and widely spaced defensive positions. Such attacks may be costly for the Russians — who routinely sacrifice hundreds of soldiers a day to keep pressing forward — but they are also taking a significant toll on Ukrainian defenders.
No reliable casualty estimates exist, but the best guess of governments and independent analysts routinely puts the dead, missing, and wounded from both sides at nearly one million, or more.
During his campaign for a second term, Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine in “24 hours.” Although that clearly did not happen, a rehabilitation of Washington’s relations with Russia is well underway.
The Trump White House has systematically excised Ukraine supporters from its ranks. Mike Waltz, the former National Security Adviser who was hawkish on Russia prior to joining Team Trump, has been relegated to a meaningless ambassadorship at the United Nations. The Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg — a retired Army lieutenant general that the Kremlin regularly attacks as a hardliner — is throwing in the towel after being routinely ignored by the White House for nearly a year, and will depart his post in January.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a former Russia hawk who is also Trump’s acting National Security Adviser, has receded from a major role in the Ukraine negotiations, leaving them instead in the hands of Witkoff.
Witkoff’s lack of international, government, or diplomatic experience has led to missteps — including assuming a Kremlin translator in a meeting with Putin was sent by the U.S. embassy — but as a Trump crony and loyalist, he appears to be immune to criticism. The real estate lawyer was scheduled to meet with Zelensky in Turkey on Wednesday to present his peace plan, but the Ukrainian leader pulled out, saying he had a different plan that must be discussed in a broader format with European leaders.
While many observers had hoped Trump was coming around in his views on the war in Ukraine, the reality is that despite a variety of statements promising action at unspecified future dates, he has continued to treat Putin with deference. The Trump White House has taken no significant action against Russia to force a more equitable and lasting solution to the conflict.
Putin has proven adept at playing to Trump’s ego, often agreeing to meetings — such as in Alaska in August — and phone calls to discuss the situation, but rarely following through with meaningful commitments. A proposed peace summit in Budapest fell apart over technical details.
While Russia is suffering mightily under sanctions and Ukraine’s increasingly effective campaign to disrupt its oil and energy infrastructure using long-range missile and drone strikes, the Kremlin has little incentive to give up on its maximalist demands: the seizure of vast swaths of Ukraine; regime change in Kyiv; dismantling of the Ukrainian military; and the acknowledgement that its sphere of influence extends into Europe. The proposed plan would deliver these to Putin.
Setting aside the viability of the other points, a major issue for both Ukrainians and Europeans is the mechanism by which any promises Russia makes about future non-aggression and integrity of borders can be trusted. Russia has previously, under Putin, repeatedly broken multiple international agreements.
Europeans evinced shock and dismay at the Witkoff-Dmitriev proposal.
“All the decisions concerning Poland will be taken by Poles. Nothing about us without us,” wrote Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, apparently in reference to one of the plan’s clauses concerning the stationing of European fighter aircraft in Poland, which in practice appears to mean an agreement between Washington and Moscow to limit U.S. forces in Eastern Europe. “When it comes to peace, all the negotiations should include Ukraine. Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.”
The proposed peace plan adds to growing consternation in Europe — and among other U.S. allies — about Washington’s long-term intentions in the region. Last month, the U.S. announced it was pulling a brigade of soldiers out of Romania, and it remains antipathetic to military commitments in Europe.
The leaders of Europe’s major powers are now trying to contain the fallout.
“Ukraine can count on us. Together with [French President] Emmanuel Macron and [U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, I reaffirmed our full support to Zelensky,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz wrote after a joint call with the embattled Ukrainian. “We will coordinate closely with Europe and the U.S., whose commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty we welcome.”
The proposed peace plan will certainly be rejected by Kyiv, and it isn’t yet clear whether it will even succeed in becoming the starting point for further discussions.
Another non-starter deal is a diplomatic failure — whether by design, ineptitude, or malice — and it means another delay in serious peace negotiations.
And that means the war grinds on.
From Rolling Stone US
